Taking Stock

At the beginning of the season, I made what I thought was a fairly common-knowledge prediction. I wrote that the Sox, the Yankees, and the Rays would all break even against one another, and against the elite of the league, generally, and that the real distinction amongst them would be this: who can beat the little guys, night in, night out. Baseball's a game of consistency, the nightly grind, so this seemed to make sense. Thinking about the first half of the season, I wanted to check it out.

Turns out, I was wrong.

The top of the AL East is fairly close in the standings. On that we were all right. The Sox are 54-34, the Yanks are in second at 51-37, and the Rays are not far behind at 48-41.

To test out my original argument, I went simple: I picked out what I consider the best of the AL: Boston, Tampa Bay, New York, Los Angeles, Detroit, Texas, and Toronto (they were so good for such a long time that statistically they should factor in here). And I simply looked at the matchups amongst those teams. It was a bit of a surprise.

Playing those six, the Rays are 16-13. That's about what you would have expected, even a little better. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 17-21. Many of those losses (we know) have come at the hand of the Sox, but still, the Yankees are underperforming against the AL's best. But really, 17-21 isn't that much of a surprise. The real surprise was this: the Sox are a whopping 24-11 against the six best teams in the AL.

To be honest, I'm not sure what to think of this. I was clearly wrong, so far. And it's to be celebrated - when it comes to elite clashes, the Sox are stepping up big time. But that also means that they're right around .500 against the middling teams. And my concern is that the torrid pace against the elite just can't be sustained. Baseball averages out, at least when you're talking about the best few teams or players in a league. Every year, the batting champ hits in the low-to-mid .300's. The best team gets between 93 and 103 wins. That's just how it works. It's a long season, and things tend to settle around historical averages.

So yes, I should be very happy with the Sox dominance. I just hope that they can keep it up. What if the Yankees stop blowing it against the good teams? They've been beating up on the small guys the way they're supposed to. If the Sox don't start doing the same, they could be in trouble.

Leave it to a Sox fan to panic when he sees his team has been crushing the best of the best. But still, it's a game of numbers, and math makes me nervous.

Sox "Desperate" to Rid Themselves of Lugo....No Kidding

There are "new" reports circling around the web that the Red Sox are"desperate" to trade Julio Lugo. Does this surprise anyone? Haven't all of us been desperate to get rid of the overpaid and irrationally confident shortstop pretty much since we got him?

Now, as the entire baseball market has the Sox over a barrel knowing that they need to move him, no one wants to touch him with a ten foot pole. And for good reason, the best production Boston has managed out of Lugo came in Spring Training this year when he hit close to .400.....I still can't believe many of us were foolish in harboring some optimism for him (myself included).

The Sox have Lowrie on the mend, Green as more than capable backup, and a 9.25 million dollar waste of space on their bench (not to mention he's taking up a valuable roster spot). In addition the Sox have made it their goal to build some young shortstops in their farm system in order to develop for the future. From signing an 18 year old Cuban defector, to forcing a single A pitcher into a shortstop role, to today's signing of a 16 year old Dominican who apparently is one of the best young talents on an island full of studs.

Make no mistake about it, the Sox are not happy with the revolving shortstop door, but between dumping Lugo for a bag of balls and prioritizing their scouting, I have confidence they'll get it done.

Wake Doesn't Play, But Still Manages to Have a Good Time

(Couldn't pass up posting this shot)

Nothing like using a 42 (nearly 43) year-old "Just For Men" sponsor to stand with chicks half his age and promote hard booze. Good for Wakefield for making the most out of his trip to St. Louis. Tim Wakefield may not have gotten into last night's all-star game, but judging by the photo above, he still had a good time.

Also, this picture looks like it was taken at a house party....I'm wondering how Pap convinced Wake to forget about hunting, throw on his Sunday's best, and party with him.

I can't say I wasn't disappointed to not see the ageless wonder get a shot at dazzling the NL with floaters....but at the same time, I'm sure as hell pumped Crawford was able to make that catch to preserve what I hope to be homefield advantage for the Sox come late October.

Lastly, Wake should consider it a win that he made it out of St. Louis alive....it's not exactly the safest city in America....and something tells me he doesn't blend in well there.

Tater Derby is Just Not the Same

(Prince Fielder took home the title on a night that failed to really impress)

Members of the ITM staff are still shaking off the cobwebs from a weekend long bachelor party straight out of the movies. However we were still able to take advil and drink enough gatorade to get together for tonight's tater derby.


For Tim, the event is the second coming of Christmas....we probably yell some combination of "tater" and/or "yahtzee" 931 times, and it never gets old.......honestly, how my fiance` still plans on marrying me is unreal.


This year however, something was missing. We screamed, yelled, and tried to get excited, but other than Fielder's 503 foot bomb, it just wasn't there. Maybe it's the lack of laced steroids and HGH, perhaps the weekend was still taking its toll on us, but it's pretty safe to say that the event just isn't the same without performance-enhancing elements.


We've clearly been mislead by the unnatural results of years past, and I'm 100% behind cleaning up the game, but I sure do miss the craziness of the fabricated years.....


.....at least Brandon Inge made J-Bay feel a little better by matching his goose egg from 05'.


Go Sox...and Go AL All Stars.

Why Didn't I Start This Guy On My Fantasy Team??

A quick and completely selfish post here. The Sox are currently a back and forth battle with the Royals (which should never happen), but I can't help but be kicking myself for keeping David Ortiz on the pine in my fantasy league.

Ortiz sent another opposite field shot over the green monster a short time ago...making it three taters in his last 16 at bats. That, in part, naturally coincides with a boat load of RBI of late. Ortiz may just end the season with near David Ortiz-like numbers...something I would have bet the small apartment against just over a month ago.

The reason why it's really eating at me? I have Mark "I can't hit a thing" Teixeira in there in front of him. I take full blame for losing this week to a divisional rival because of not believing in a hometown guy. This is why fantasy baseball is bad for die-hard fans, it provides for a near constant conflict of interest. Not only do I already get mad when Pedroia pops out to shallow right, but I freak out because of the fantasy baseball ramifications. When did watching baseball become anything more than rooting for your hometown team? Those days seem long, gone, and hard to find. Regardless bad management and a lack of faith won't lead to a successful season of any kind...real or fantasy.

Hot Stove on Halladay

One day removed from Jays' manager J.P. Ricciardi's unexpected reversal on Roy Halladay, and the hot stove is definitely warming up. Ricciardi avowed earlier in the season that his ace righty was not on the market, but that was back when the Jays were the surprise leader in the AL East, before an injury outbreak dropped them down to fourth. Ricciardi, as every baseball fan now knows, said yesterday that the Jays were willing to "listen" to trade talks, though in order to move, he'd need to get a call from a "highly motivated" bidder with a package of young studs. Ricciardi's phone has no doubt been ringing ever since, and reports are starting to leak out about who, precisely, is the most "highly motivated" caller.

Word today is that the Phillies are the early favorite. They've been looking for what seems like months for a powerful righty to put at the top of the rotation next to the southpaw Cole Hammels. The Phillies, like everyone, love Halladay - particularly since they think he fits their ballpark, with a high ground-ball to fly-out ration (1.28 over 2009) and solid strike out numbers (the Phillies have a hitter-friendly home). The Phillies aren't as loaded with young talent as a few of the other teams, but the word is they may be willing to bet the farm on this trade. They feel that he could simply dominate the NL and make them a strong repeat contender.

After that comes the West Coast teams - the Angels, Giants, and Dodgers are all reported to be interested in Halladay. Again, these teams don't have the strongest farm systems, but likely could put together an appealing prospects package, with some decent young pitching going back to the Jays.

Then there are the longshots in our very own AL East. They've got the most talent, but, according to club sources, little inclination to part with it. Both the Yankees and the Sox have let it be known that they're not in active talks for Halladay---here in New York, Yanks officials have spent the day telling anyone who'd listen that there is absolutely no chance they make this trade. But, keep in mind, that's the Yankees talking. Never really the model of caution or consistency. A bad week in the Bronx, and it could certainly be an interesting All-Star break.

That really just leaves the Sox to discuss. The fact is, no one has the young talent - particularly the young arms - that the Sox have. The Jays have said they prefer not to deal within the division, but seem to have acknowledged that a team like the Sox (or possibly the Yankees) have the ability to make an offer they can't refuse.

From this perspective, I'd say it's highly unlikely the Sox or the Yanks get in on this action. Yes, Halladay is a proven AL East winner. Yes, he's under contract through 2010 at a relatively reasonable cost. And yes he'd likely approve a trade to either. But the Jays are reportedly looking for a package of 3 high quality prospects, possibly pushing to 4 depending on what kind of a bidding war they can ignite. You've got to think that's the last thing Cashman or Theo wants after years of work plowing those farms. It would, at the very least, cost them Hughes and Buchholz, respectively.

So we'll just have to wait and see. And I'm just gonna hope against hope that Halladay finds himself a nice comfortable home in the National League.

Are You Picking Up What John Smoltz is Putting Down?

John Smoltz certainly knows more about the game of baseball than I do, I would never question that. However I am starting to question his constant optimism after some difficult starts. Sure, he's only 3 games into his Red Sox pitching career, but after last night's struggle against a weak-hitting A's lineup, I was surprised to see the positive statements continue from the future hall of famer....

"I went back and watched the whole game again and I'm still shaking my head on some of the hits and some of the plays. Some of the pitches that I didn't think should have gotten hit, and they found holes. ... What I hate more than anything is two-out runs. But I felt in control. I threw the ball really well. I didn't have much to show for it tonight, but as mad as I get, I have to make sure to realize I'm making a lot of progress even though the results don't look like that."

So allowing 13 base runners over 6 innings to the Oakland A's is a good thing? Smoltz wasn't exactly hitting his spots last night, especially with his breaking stuff....clearly he's battling the combination of old age and rust, at least he expects to be better....

"I've given up all two-out runs except one or two, and that has to change. I'm going to look and see if there are any trends. I don't think I have to be perfect. I haven't pitched away from my fastball or contact. I'm almost there."

Would I be writing this quick post if the Sox had won in a high-scoring game last night? Maybe, maybe not. I guess I continue to trust John Smoltz, but perhaps I want to see him kick a water cooler or two....maybe sever Julio Lugo's arm so he can't launch balls into the stands....something to show he's pissed off and expects better.

Thankfully Josh Beckett looks to pick up the pieces tonight. After losing two of three to the Mariners and making a 21 year old kid look like Cy Young last night, the local nine need to get their collective asses in gear. Go Sox.