Sox v. Angels: Defense/Coaching Preview

(had to include this pic....look at Petey...money)....

To round out the Sox-Angels preview, ITM now turns to the defensive and managerial side of the game. As we have all seen in past playoffs, both defensive play and decisive managerial tactics have had significant impacts on October baseball....

Defense:

Red Sox:
Overall the Sox were 3rd in the AL with a fielding percentage of .986, but lets look at it a little closer at that.....

We all know and love Tek for one thing...his approach to the game (and for the rumor that he could be keeping Heidi Watney up at night)....when considering his game preparation and plate blocking ability, he is always considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game.

On the right side of the infield the Sox boast one of the best defensive and offensive combinations in baseball. Dustin Pedrioa may not have the best range of MLB second baseman's (might have to give Alexi Ramirez the nod for that), he makes just about every play he gets to. Plus he can spin the double play with the best of them. Youk, we all know how solid he has been at first base, setting the consecutive errorless game streak record....let's just hope he's always playing first instead of jumping to third because of a Lowell injury.

The left side may not be as impressive as the right, but Jed Lowrie has yet to make an error in 48 games at short. The liability lies in Mike Lowell's hip. He took some grounders today and it was noted that his later movement was limited. I expect the Angels to test him early with bunts down the third base line.

The outfield is centered around Jacoby Ellsbury's speed in center field. He makes amazing plays look routine. Jason Bay in left is above average in all aspects of fielding...while JD Drew will have the same RSN concerns as Lowell. If he's healthy, he's above average in right, but with Kotsay out there, I'm a little more concerned.

Angels:
The Angels were 5th in the AL this year, making 5 more errors than the Sox. Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis split the catching duties, but both are above average defenders....they don't have the same reputation as Tek, but they are more than serviceable.

On the right side, Tex is a gold glover at first, very comparable to Youk for the Angels. At second, Howie Kendrick is a confident young player who only made 4 errors in 446 total chances.

On the left side, Eric Aybar will be playing short. He has good range, and can plan second and the corner outfield spots as well. He has made 18 errors this season....which sounds like a lot until you think about Rent-a-Wreck who made like 60. Chone Figgins will be manning the hot corner(I still think someone needs a slap for naming their kid Chone). He is another player who can play multiple positions but has had his occasional struggles at third. I somehow doubt Papi will be dropping a bunt down his line in the event of a shift however.

When looking at the Halos' outfield you have to first look at the cannon of an arm that is Vlad. I was at a spring training game a few years back and saw him throw a seed from the warning track to nail a runner at the plate...it remains the best throw I've ever seen. That said, he's been so banged up in the past that he looks like he's 40 running after balls in the gap. Overall their outfield lacks the speed the Sox have, but don't exactly have the "Manny hole" Boston once had.

Edge: Evens

Coaching:

I'm sorry, call me a homer, but I see an advantage for the Sox here. Sure Scioscia has been here before too, but he has had a cakewalk in LA compared to what Tito has to deal with on a daily basis in Boston (not just media, I'm talking injuries, personalities etc). Mikey likes to push the game, test team defense, and use a lot of hit and runs. Tito may be more of a "swing away" manager, but he knows how to handle late game substitutions well and you can't argue with the two rings on his hand.

So what Scioscia learned Spanish to communicate with his Latino players, some of whom refuse to learn English (looking at you Vlad)?. That doesn't make him a great manager.....it does get him the respect of his Latino players though.....ITM note: Scioscia already speaks Italian, so learning Spanish wasn't extremely difficult when you consider how close the languages are....it's like being spotted a 7 spot in the bottom 1st as a starting pitcher.

Slight edge to Boston


Game one can't get here fast enough...

Red Sox v. Angels--Lineup Preview

Things are certainly a lot different than last year. In '04, the talk was all about how the manufacturing that served the Angels well over a 160+ season couldn't cut it in the postseason. There, what you needed in addition to reliable starting pitching, was a team that could give you a few big innings. Being in close games night-in night-out was too stressful, too chancy to be the way to a World Series. The Angels needed some pop. They got it.

Since arriving midsummer, Mark Texeira is hotter than anyone in baseball except Manny. His OPS is at 1.081 and he's slugging .632. That's their pop. And the entire lineup has responded. Just as Manny seems to have sparked a young group of Dodgers, some guys who, after last season, we weren't sure had it anymore, have shown us they do. Vlad and and Garret, namely. Even Torri Hunter looked suspect at times, but for the season he's now brought his tally up to 153 hits (37 of them doubles) and 85 runs. Chone Figgins had a terible start to the season but has improved his numbers dramatically. Where before the Angels relied heavily on Figgins to get on and steal everytime, then get ready to get over on the bunt, then tag, all they're asking him now is to get on every once in a while and make a nice big sprint from first to home. Same goes for Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli, who've filled roles nicely in this lineup. All in all, the Angels can put together big innings. Throughout the sweep in '07, this was maybe the Sox only fear, and now they've got to face it.

The Sox, on the other hand, are somwhat limping into the stretch. Lowell and Drew are obviously still question marks (at the time of post). Both players' troubles, however, seem to have a greater effect in the field, so it's possible they will be able to produce. On the bright side, several key players got or stayed hot in September. Jacoby hit .340 for the month and had 11 extra base hits, Pedroia was hitting .400 over the final week of the season, and Coco hit .375 with a .444 OBP to close out the season. Youk has been the lineup's rock. The newcomers have meshed well, though Bay's strikeouts and Lowrie's recent struggles continue to be a concern. Ortiz has concerned some people over the year, but most seem to think that in the crisp of autum, he'll be back in form. All in all, the Sox look strong up front, but with a lot of question marks after Youk.

The Sox can match the Angles on any given night, but now it's a matter of doing it without fail. Overall, the hitting edge goes to the Angels.

Red Sox vs Angels: Pitching Preview

Angels Manager Mike Scoisia called the Red Sox pitching the key to their success this year, and I'm inclined to agree with him. "If you look at their starting rotation and you look at their ability to close out and hold leads, that's the real heartbeat of that club." Scoisia said.

Since the Angels chose to have a day off between each game except games 3 and 4, each team has the option of only using 3 starting pitchers. When this format was announced I was expecting Josh Beckett to make 2 starts in this series if necessary, and given his career postseason stats, 6-2 with a 1.73 era, I felt pretty good about that. Now we know that baring any setbacks Beckett will pitch in Game 3, Jon Lester will pitch game 1.

Lester won 16 games for the Sox this year with an era of 3.21 making great strides as a starting pitcher this year, and the case can be made he was the Sox best pitcher. The Angels will counter with John Lacky in game 1. Historically the Sox have owned Lackey, in his career against the sox he is 3-6 with an era of 5.56. Lackey may have righted his ship this year at Fenway as he almost threw a no hitter before it was broken up by Dustin Pedroia in the 9th inning. Personally I like Lester in game 1, he's been there for us all season and the numbers back it up.

Game 2 the Sox start Dauiske Matsuazaka vs Ervin Santana. We all know Matsuzaka's problems, throwing too many pitches and walks, but he is 9-0 on the road this year with a 2.37 era. Santana had another solid year for the Angels winning 16 games, however he's never fared well in the playoffs, giving up 8 earned runs in less the 12 innings pitched.

Game 3, we should see Beckett. If he's healthy, which is a question, his past playoff performance says the Sox win. A team with Josh Beckett has never lost a post season series. Joe Saunders, who really came out of no where to have a great season will oppose Beckett in game 3. If Beckett can't go the Sox would counter with Tim Wakefield or Paul Byrd, my money is on Wake, hopefully we won't have to cross that bridge. If they first two games split, Beckett in game 3 could shift all the momentum to the Red Sox and Jon Lester in game 4.

If necessary, in games 4 and 5 we'll see the starters from games 1 and 2 again with game 5 being back in Anaheim. Tony Massarotti wrote yesterday that in games Lester and Matsuzaka started this year the Red Sox are a combined 45-17, and when Beckett started they were 13 and 14, a losing record. This isn't a dig on Beckett, it highlights the strength of the Sox starting rotation; when Lester and the Dice Man pitch the Sox win!

Moving on the Bullpens, both clubs have dynamite closers in Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod saved 62 games this year a new major league record, while Pap saved 41 games. Saves are possibly the most inflated stat in baseball, but it is important to have a guy able to close out the game in October. The days off between games is also beneficial to the closers as both Francona and Scoisia don't have to worry about over using their bullpens.

Watching Papelbon this September he didn't look as dominant; a buddy of mine told me he saw that Pap's opponents batting average against in Septemeber was +.300. However, I had Krod on my fantasy team this year (Championship team by the way) and I can tell you it was a rare night that he worked a perfect 9th. Everyone thinks as the guys as automatic, and for the most part they are, but consider this, the Sox have gotten to Krod in the playoffs before, Papelbon has never given up a run in the postseason.

If starting pitching doesn't decide this series the bullpens leading up the closers might. The Sox seem to have stabilized things between Masterson, Okajima and Delcarmen. Count on Delcarmen working the 6th and 7th innings if necessary, since Masterson moved to the bullpen Manny has a 1.60 era over 33-2/3 innings. Okajima and Masterson will serve as the bridge to Pap in the 9th. Masterson has struggled throwing strikes at times this year, although overall I would say moving him to the bullpen has been a success. Masterson had a great slider and sinker and Okajima has been much better down the stretch run, using his change up more effectively.

The Angels boast one of the better bullpens in baseball, with Scot Sheilds and and Jose Arrendondo anchoring the middle innings. Shields has been a horse for the Angels dating back to their first World Series run in 2002 and Arrendondo is a young kid who doesn't let many people on base, and when he does they don't often score. Arrendondo hasn't walked anyone this year and is sporting a 1.62 era, and he won 10 games out of the pen, not bad.

Overall I'd say the pitching match up is a wash in this series. If Beckett was making 2 starts I might give the edge to the Sox, however things look pretty even to me. So what will it come down to? As simplistic as it sounds and is, whoever pitchers better. If Matsuzaka goes 3 innings in his two starts and the Red Sox bullpen starts sinking like a German sub the Sox could be in some serious trouble. If Lackey and the other Angels starters go out and get rocked by the Sox as they have in the past all the rally monkeys in the world won't be able to stop the Red Sox from moving on to the American League Championship Series.

Check back later today for a breakdown of the lineups!

Lowell, JD Could be Back for Game One

Got your attention with the Jessica Alba picture didn't I?...we'll get to her later in the post.....

An associated press story broke tonight that both Mike Lowell and JD Drew could be back for Wednesday's game one of the ALDS against the Angels. Both took successful batting practice today with limited discomfort.

This is welcoming news for the Sox who continue to get hit with injuries like a Pedro fastball from 99' (come on, every batter he hit was on purpose and you know it). Josh Beckett appears to be on track for a game three start, but it is not sure how healthy he'll be for that start.

So while the Sox are not sure how healthy Lowell and JD will be, their names in the lineup alone forces the Angels to change their pitching strategy. David Ortiz publicly stated that he doesn't expect to see anything to hit in the playoffs (i.e., he's still in man love with Manny). Regardless, having Mike Lowell and JD Drew at 80 percent is better than having to shuffle Alex Cora, Mark Kotsay and Sean Casey into the lineup. If Boston can piece together a lineup and pitching rotation that is 80 percent of what it is fully capable of, they'll be in good shape.

Tito had a good quote today..."We've been able to win 95 games without everyone healthy"....imagine what this team can do if and when they get themselves some health.....but we're up against the clock. October baseball, nothing like it....... (still trying to decide if that's a better slogan than "there is only one October".....I'm pretty sure it's not, which is sad, but I'm thinking throw Jessica Alba up there and have her say it, and it's immediately better than that toolbox Dane Cook).

UPDATING BREAKING NEWS: BECKETT TO PITCH GAME 3

In Terry Francona's post game press conference he said that Jon Lester will will start game 1, Matsuzaka will start game 2, and Josh Beckett will start game 3 back in Boston.

Beckett apparently strained his oblique muscle on Friday during an indoor bullpen session.

Francona said there were discussions about pitching Beckett in game 2, but they wanted to give him as much time as possible before his next start. Tito didn't seem too concerned about the situation, so I'll sleep easy tonight.

More on this as the story develops, but it looks minor at 11pm on Sunday night.

Also the times of the first two games against the Angels have been announced. Game 1 against the Angels will be on Wednesday at 10:07 p.m. Game 2 will be played Friday at 9:37 p.m. TBS is carrying both games.

BREAKING NEWS...SOURCE: BECKET COULD BE OUT FOR THE POSTSEASON

Reports have yet to be confirmed, but there is reason for Tom Brady-like concern in Red Sox Nation. Reports are coming out that Boston's ace is suffering from an oblique injury that could be sideline him for the playoffs. It is thought that the injury occurred during a off day bullpen workout. Every four letter word in my vocabulary has been used while typing this post....this could have HUGE implications on any thoughts of Boston's attempt for back to back championships.

As details become available ITM will be on it....keep your fingers crossed and knock on some wood......

....knock!

It's Hard to Shea Goodbye

Right off the bat I'm sorry Mets fans, I couldn't resist. The 2008 Major League Baseball regular season is over...almost.

Where else to start on the final day of the regular season then in New York. The Mets were eliminated from post season contention by the Florida Marlins on the last day of the season for the second straight year. The Mets bullpen did give up the lead, however you can't pin today's loss on them, the line up didn't give the bullpen an opportunity to blow the lead scoring only 2 runs in a 4-2 loss.

With the Mets loss, yes that's right, the Milwaukee Brewers are heading to the playoffs for the first time since 1982 as the Wild Card champs, they lost the World Series in 7 games to the St Louis Cardinals that year. For a little perspective, I wasn't even born yet the last time the Brew Crew played baseball in October, this has to be exciting for Milwaukee.

CC Sabathia, pitching on 3 days rest again, threw 9 incredible innings as the Brew Crew won 3-1. Ryan Braun hit a 2 run home run in the bottom of the 8th putting the Brewers in the playoffs. They had to wait a few minutes to celebrate as the Mets game finished up, however the champagne flowed and the fans cheered. When asked if he'd pitch on 3 days rest again in game 2 Sabathia answered, "No doubt".

The National League playoff picture is set in stone, the NL east champion Phillies will take on the Brewers, and the Cubs will take on the NL west champion Dodgers. In the American League we know the Red Sox will travel to Anaheim to take on the Angels. The Tampa Bay Rays still don't know who their opponent will be as the White Sox remain a half game behind the Twins. The White Sox will play the Detroit Tigers tomorrow, if they win they will play the Twins in a one game playoff on Tuesday to decide the AL Central champion.

ITM will cover all of the playoff series in October, however our main focus will be the Red Sox. Today the Angels announced their playoff rotation and as expected they will throw John Lackey in game 1, Ervin Santana in game 2, and surprise 17 game winner Joe Saunders in game 3. The Sox will throw Beckett in game 1 against Lackey, however it remains to be seen if Lester or Matsuzaka will start in game 2. Terry Francona and Theo Epstien will probably announced their playoff roster tomorrow, ITM will have full coverage.

Notes from Sunday.

Looks like Dustin Pedroia won't win the AL batting title. Dusty finished game 1 of the double header at .326 and is not in the starting line up for game 2 and Joe Mauer is currently at .330, however if Pedroia gets in the game tonight and Mauer and the twins have to play a 1 game with playoff the White Sox...who knows.

JD Drew was 0-2 in game 1 of the Sox/Yanks double header today before coming out, but he did look good in right field and the Sox expect him to play against the Angels in round 1 of the playoffs.

Check back tomorrow and Tuesday for updates about all the division series as well as predictions for the postseason.