Kazmir, messenger of God?

Sources are reporting that a deal is in the works that could have big-time consequences on the shape of the Sox playoff push. Buster Olney and Tom Verducci are now both reporting that the Rays have neared a deal with the Angels that would send Scott Kazmir out to Los Angeles / Anaheim in exchange for two prospects, likely Alexander Torres and Matthew Sweeney. Those in the know say that the Rays have been planning to unload Kazmir for some time now, but still the timing is strange. Most thought the trade would come in the offseason. But instead, the Rays, only 3 games back in the Wild Card, the defending AL champs, have just ushered out one of their prime young starters. (Kazmir has been a presence for quite a while, but remember, he's only 25 years old.)

The move does have its reason, though. Kazmir is owed $8m next year and $12m the year after. The Rays have obviously had some success with the young-and-restless business model, so the addition of Torres - 13-4 with a 2.75 ERA this year in AA - and Sweeney - a young infielder who showed some pop in A ball this year - isn't that crazy. But still, despite the realities of the southern Florida baseball finances, you had to think that the Rays were looking to build themselves as more than just a youth gamble from year-to-year. That's not to say they couldn't easily pull it off this year without Kazmir. They've got Wade Davis ready to join the rotation. It's just not the business model I was expecting.

For the Angels, the move does look like a play aimed right at Boston. Obviously the team has a more dependable revenue stream than Tampa and can afford the relatively expensive young gun. But to them, Kazmir is more than just a talented starter. He's a proven arm against the Red Sox. Kazmir is 8-7 with a very respectable ERA of 3.59 against the Sox, with a solid and crucial playoff win included in there. His numbers are even better against the Yankees the Rangers. The Angels, though racking up the wins in the AL West, just weren't that excited about a playoff rotation formed from amongst John Lackey, Joe Saunders, Jared Weaver, and Ervin Santana. Kazmir definitely has them looking a little more fierce.

So, to sum up, a strange move. It can't be that the Rays are selling out 2009. They've got plenty of arms. But it certainly does look like the AL East war of attrition is starting to have an effect. Don't want to jinx anything, but you have to assume that the Sox probabilities will look a little different after this - the playoffs might be slightly more plausible, but the likely first-round foe might be quite a bit better. So, in other words, who the hell knows?

Seventh Heaven (starring Jon Lester, Matt Garza, and Jessica Biel)

Well, we're gonna get what we asked for after all. Probably not the way most of us thought it would go down, but damn you can't ask for an October roller coaster better than the one we're currently riding, Sox and Rays both.

The Red Sox pulled off a 4-2 victory to force a game 7 tomorrow, first pitch starting shortly after 8pm. Tonight was bound to lack the high drama of game 5, but there were still minor heroes to be found. Jason Varitek broke out of his 0-for in an absolutely huge way, hitting a solo shot in the bottom of the 5th to put the Sox up for good. Youk was as reliable as ever, driving in two runs. Coco and J.D. continued to scorch the ball, and Papi, oh Papi, I'm sorry for doubting you, big fella. The doubt is like what Jason Bay says about his strike-outs: It's a big part of my game.

Perhaps the toughest performance of the day came from Josh Beckett, who pitched effectively through what looked to be considerable pain. A hanger inside to Bartlett was really his only serious mistake of the night. I refuse to call anything that B.J. Upton does a mistake. (I've said it before, but it bears repeating, Upton is as locked in right now as anyone I've ever seen.) Beckett made it through 5, then Okie came up with two big, hitless innings that really quieted the crowd and disheartened the Rays. Masterson started shaky but settled down quickly and got through a clean 8th. Pap made short work of Longoria, Crawford, and Aybar in the 9th.

Altogether, it was a workmanlike win for the Sox---if there is such a thing in an ALCS Game 6. At times they certainly seemed to be doing their impression of the playoff-Angels. There were, in total, 12 men left on base for the Sox. 12 men. But they just kept getting on and never seemed to doubt that they could push a few across when need be. And on that note, I'd hardly say the Rays were in panic mode, though the TBS broadcasters certainly took the Bartlett error (leading to the Youk rbi) as a sign of complete composure collapse. The fact is the Rays looked a little flat, but hardly worried.

There's going to be a lot of stories about Sox momentum in the morning, but I for one see this Game 7 as a tabula rasa. Except, of course, for the fact that these were the two best teams of the 2008 season, they know each other like the backs of their hands, and I don't doubt that every player on the field is going to be as hungry as you would expect for an ALCS Game 7. It should be a doozy.

Get some sleep, everyone, get a nice cup of coffee in the morning, and bask in the best damn feeling in sports. Win or lose, we've got an October Game 7 coming right up.

ITM Notes

---Can anyone from Tampa Bay testify about noise levels in the stadium? There was a lot of talk about it, but it never seemed to play a role from where I was sitting. Was I hearing that wrong or did they just get the wrong 6,000 extra people to fill in those seats? Pretty weak showing.

---Anyone else seem to think Tito was chewing tobacco instead of gum when Masterson was in pitching? That's an actual question. Was he that nervous or was I seeing wrong?

---Walking the streets of NYC today in a Sox hat, I had 6 people shout at me "Go Rays". There were only 2 "Go Sox" people. And one guy with golf clubs and Nantucket Red pants walking somewhere on the UES who asked me what time the game started. I pretended not to speak English. We didn't need that guy tuning in. Point is, America loves a Cinderella.

---Is Bartlett wearing magnets in his elbow?

---The pitching matchup tomorrow should be great. Lester v. Garza. Shields might be the Rays big-game favorite, but from what I've seen of the kid, Garza's got the real pair and isn't afraid to swing 'em around a bit. And for the Sox, there's nobody I want on the mound more right now. Lester's got a lot on his resume so far, but this would be quite a coup.

October Experience

The 2008 Tampa Bay (don't call them Devil) Rays are one of the best stories in baseball. I am required by law to say that, but lets talk about what could be the x factor in this American League Championship Series, experience.

The Red Sox have been in 4 of the last 6 ALCS's, Tampa just got on the big stage. True they never blinked all year when everyone was predicting they would crumble under the pressure, or because of their September schedule, but now there are 4 teams left, soon to be 2.

Last year the Sox were down 3-1 against the Indians in the ALCS, and I can't remember one person saying the Red Sox weren't going to the World Series. Beckett pitched and won game 5 in Cleveland and then it was really over, because the Tribe was not winning in Fenway. That was part of the post 2004 feeling they say every Red Sox fan has. Yeah maybe, it's also called the experience factor.

In 2004 the Sox rallied from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Yankees and exercise all their demons from the previous 86 years. Big deal right that was 2004? Wrong. You can't teach experience. The Rays are young, fast, full of energy, and underdog which are all good things, but they've never been here before.

Experience doesn't win ball games, I'm not saying that, but it can certainly go a long way in helping. I'm interested to see how the Rays react if they are down 2-0 and Jon Lester is pitching game 3 at home on Monday. I'm looking forward to see how the Rays recover from a 6-4-3 rally killing double play in the bottom of the 8th inning and go on to lose games 1 or 2 at home. I want to see how Joe Madden manages his bullpen, and if he pushes guys, and when he takes his starters out. I want to see how their starters bounce back if the Red Sox jump out to an early lead. Maybe they handle everything perfectly and Tampa goes to it's first World Series in team history, that would truly be an amazing story.

The Sox will still have to make the right pitches and hit at the right times to win the series, but if they are down 3-1 in the series going into game 5, I'm not writing them off, because the Sox have the experience card.

As stated, Sox in 7, play ball!

Angels Force Game 4.

Mike Scioscia said the Angels were not getting eliminated tonight; 5 1/2 hours later he was proven right. The Sox would have been lucky to win tonight had they pulled it out. The Angels continued to struggle catching the ball in the outfield, allowing a Jacoby Ellsbury pop up to fall in between Tori Hunter and Howie Kendrick scoring 3 runs on the play.

Josh Beckett struggled to throw strikes tonight in his first post season start. Beckett threw 30 pitches in the first inning and never really located his fastball at any point tonight. Beckett and Varitek had 3 separate meetings at the mound in the 1st inning, once being joined by pitching coach John Farrell. Hard to know what they were talking about but it didn't seem that either of them were on the same page as far as pitch selection. Beckett didn't seem to be affected by his oblique strain at all so it doesn't appear health was an issue; his last start was 13 days ago so we might have seen some rust and perhaps the weather was a factor.

The game remained tied 4-4 from the in the top of the 12 the Angels finally broke the 4-4 tie and the Sox were unable to create any Fenway Magic in the bottom of the inning. The Sox had their chances with the bases loaded in the 11th, but Krod was able to snake out of it.

Game 4 is Monday night, first pitch at 8:37pm, with any luck the game will be over before Midnight. Jon Lester will pitch again for the Sox and John Lackey starts again for the Halos. The Red Sox lead the series 2-1.

ITM notes from the game:

Mike Lowell is getting the job done at third, but just barely. He looks pretty terrible at the plate, I have little confidence in him to drive the ball with his hip injury. Lowell was lifted for a pinch runner in the 11th, I can see him riding the pine tomorrow.

The Sox bullpen pitched 6 scoreless innings, however Javier Lopez relinquished the lead in the 12th. It was encouraging to see Delcarmen, Okajima, Masterson, and Papelbon pitch well. Pap was bringing some serious heat tonight.

JD didn't start tonight because Joe Saunders is a lefty, JD did PH for Tek, however he struck out.

Tito used all the 3 catchers on the roster, pinch hitting for Tek and Cash and bringing in David Ross in the bottom of the 12th.

Dustin Pedroia has yet to get a hit in the series, not sure what's going on with him but the Sox need him to figure it out.

The Sox had won 11 straight playoff games against the Angels before tonight.

Fighting Phills take on the Brew Crew

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers haven't won a playoff game in a combined 41 years, and as they say, somethings gotta give.

The Brewcrew send Yovani Gallardo to the mound in game 1 and the Phillies counter with their ace Cole Hamels. Gallarado is only making his second start since tearing ligaments in his knee, he went 4 innings in his last start giving up 1 run. CC Sabathia is going to start game 2 and 5 (if there is one). Brewers manager Dalve Sveum toyed with the idea of starting Sabathia in every game of the series however he was talked down off that ledge by the GM. The Brewers have to be hoping that Sabbathia can win his two starts and they can somehow squeak another win out in this best of 5 series. I don't know how effective Ben Sheets will be battling an elbow injury and the Phillies will be sending Jamie Moyer out to pitch at some point, he is 72 years old.

Each team has the ability to score a lot of runs. The Phillis line up boasts Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard; it is worth noting that Pat Burrell left after BP yesterday with an injury, I haven't seen a lineup for todays game, no word on if he's playing. The Brewers will look to Prince Fielder (vegetairan?) and Ryan Braun to carry the load.

If the Phillies have the lead late they have one of baseballs best closers in Brad Lidge. Given that he won't have to face Albert Pujoles in this series he should be ok in a save opportunity.

Game 1 is today at 3:05pm at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philly, PA.

Sox v. Angels: Defense/Coaching Preview

(had to include this pic....look at Petey...money)....

To round out the Sox-Angels preview, ITM now turns to the defensive and managerial side of the game. As we have all seen in past playoffs, both defensive play and decisive managerial tactics have had significant impacts on October baseball....

Defense:

Red Sox:
Overall the Sox were 3rd in the AL with a fielding percentage of .986, but lets look at it a little closer at that.....

We all know and love Tek for one thing...his approach to the game (and for the rumor that he could be keeping Heidi Watney up at night)....when considering his game preparation and plate blocking ability, he is always considered one of the best defensive catchers in the game.

On the right side of the infield the Sox boast one of the best defensive and offensive combinations in baseball. Dustin Pedrioa may not have the best range of MLB second baseman's (might have to give Alexi Ramirez the nod for that), he makes just about every play he gets to. Plus he can spin the double play with the best of them. Youk, we all know how solid he has been at first base, setting the consecutive errorless game streak record....let's just hope he's always playing first instead of jumping to third because of a Lowell injury.

The left side may not be as impressive as the right, but Jed Lowrie has yet to make an error in 48 games at short. The liability lies in Mike Lowell's hip. He took some grounders today and it was noted that his later movement was limited. I expect the Angels to test him early with bunts down the third base line.

The outfield is centered around Jacoby Ellsbury's speed in center field. He makes amazing plays look routine. Jason Bay in left is above average in all aspects of fielding...while JD Drew will have the same RSN concerns as Lowell. If he's healthy, he's above average in right, but with Kotsay out there, I'm a little more concerned.

Angels:
The Angels were 5th in the AL this year, making 5 more errors than the Sox. Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis split the catching duties, but both are above average defenders....they don't have the same reputation as Tek, but they are more than serviceable.

On the right side, Tex is a gold glover at first, very comparable to Youk for the Angels. At second, Howie Kendrick is a confident young player who only made 4 errors in 446 total chances.

On the left side, Eric Aybar will be playing short. He has good range, and can plan second and the corner outfield spots as well. He has made 18 errors this season....which sounds like a lot until you think about Rent-a-Wreck who made like 60. Chone Figgins will be manning the hot corner(I still think someone needs a slap for naming their kid Chone). He is another player who can play multiple positions but has had his occasional struggles at third. I somehow doubt Papi will be dropping a bunt down his line in the event of a shift however.

When looking at the Halos' outfield you have to first look at the cannon of an arm that is Vlad. I was at a spring training game a few years back and saw him throw a seed from the warning track to nail a runner at the plate...it remains the best throw I've ever seen. That said, he's been so banged up in the past that he looks like he's 40 running after balls in the gap. Overall their outfield lacks the speed the Sox have, but don't exactly have the "Manny hole" Boston once had.

Edge: Evens

Coaching:

I'm sorry, call me a homer, but I see an advantage for the Sox here. Sure Scioscia has been here before too, but he has had a cakewalk in LA compared to what Tito has to deal with on a daily basis in Boston (not just media, I'm talking injuries, personalities etc). Mikey likes to push the game, test team defense, and use a lot of hit and runs. Tito may be more of a "swing away" manager, but he knows how to handle late game substitutions well and you can't argue with the two rings on his hand.

So what Scioscia learned Spanish to communicate with his Latino players, some of whom refuse to learn English (looking at you Vlad)?. That doesn't make him a great manager.....it does get him the respect of his Latino players though.....ITM note: Scioscia already speaks Italian, so learning Spanish wasn't extremely difficult when you consider how close the languages are....it's like being spotted a 7 spot in the bottom 1st as a starting pitcher.

Slight edge to Boston


Game one can't get here fast enough...

Red Sox v. Angels--Lineup Preview

Things are certainly a lot different than last year. In '04, the talk was all about how the manufacturing that served the Angels well over a 160+ season couldn't cut it in the postseason. There, what you needed in addition to reliable starting pitching, was a team that could give you a few big innings. Being in close games night-in night-out was too stressful, too chancy to be the way to a World Series. The Angels needed some pop. They got it.

Since arriving midsummer, Mark Texeira is hotter than anyone in baseball except Manny. His OPS is at 1.081 and he's slugging .632. That's their pop. And the entire lineup has responded. Just as Manny seems to have sparked a young group of Dodgers, some guys who, after last season, we weren't sure had it anymore, have shown us they do. Vlad and and Garret, namely. Even Torri Hunter looked suspect at times, but for the season he's now brought his tally up to 153 hits (37 of them doubles) and 85 runs. Chone Figgins had a terible start to the season but has improved his numbers dramatically. Where before the Angels relied heavily on Figgins to get on and steal everytime, then get ready to get over on the bunt, then tag, all they're asking him now is to get on every once in a while and make a nice big sprint from first to home. Same goes for Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli, who've filled roles nicely in this lineup. All in all, the Angels can put together big innings. Throughout the sweep in '07, this was maybe the Sox only fear, and now they've got to face it.

The Sox, on the other hand, are somwhat limping into the stretch. Lowell and Drew are obviously still question marks (at the time of post). Both players' troubles, however, seem to have a greater effect in the field, so it's possible they will be able to produce. On the bright side, several key players got or stayed hot in September. Jacoby hit .340 for the month and had 11 extra base hits, Pedroia was hitting .400 over the final week of the season, and Coco hit .375 with a .444 OBP to close out the season. Youk has been the lineup's rock. The newcomers have meshed well, though Bay's strikeouts and Lowrie's recent struggles continue to be a concern. Ortiz has concerned some people over the year, but most seem to think that in the crisp of autum, he'll be back in form. All in all, the Sox look strong up front, but with a lot of question marks after Youk.

The Sox can match the Angles on any given night, but now it's a matter of doing it without fail. Overall, the hitting edge goes to the Angels.

Red Sox vs Angels: Pitching Preview

Angels Manager Mike Scoisia called the Red Sox pitching the key to their success this year, and I'm inclined to agree with him. "If you look at their starting rotation and you look at their ability to close out and hold leads, that's the real heartbeat of that club." Scoisia said.

Since the Angels chose to have a day off between each game except games 3 and 4, each team has the option of only using 3 starting pitchers. When this format was announced I was expecting Josh Beckett to make 2 starts in this series if necessary, and given his career postseason stats, 6-2 with a 1.73 era, I felt pretty good about that. Now we know that baring any setbacks Beckett will pitch in Game 3, Jon Lester will pitch game 1.

Lester won 16 games for the Sox this year with an era of 3.21 making great strides as a starting pitcher this year, and the case can be made he was the Sox best pitcher. The Angels will counter with John Lacky in game 1. Historically the Sox have owned Lackey, in his career against the sox he is 3-6 with an era of 5.56. Lackey may have righted his ship this year at Fenway as he almost threw a no hitter before it was broken up by Dustin Pedroia in the 9th inning. Personally I like Lester in game 1, he's been there for us all season and the numbers back it up.

Game 2 the Sox start Dauiske Matsuazaka vs Ervin Santana. We all know Matsuzaka's problems, throwing too many pitches and walks, but he is 9-0 on the road this year with a 2.37 era. Santana had another solid year for the Angels winning 16 games, however he's never fared well in the playoffs, giving up 8 earned runs in less the 12 innings pitched.

Game 3, we should see Beckett. If he's healthy, which is a question, his past playoff performance says the Sox win. A team with Josh Beckett has never lost a post season series. Joe Saunders, who really came out of no where to have a great season will oppose Beckett in game 3. If Beckett can't go the Sox would counter with Tim Wakefield or Paul Byrd, my money is on Wake, hopefully we won't have to cross that bridge. If they first two games split, Beckett in game 3 could shift all the momentum to the Red Sox and Jon Lester in game 4.

If necessary, in games 4 and 5 we'll see the starters from games 1 and 2 again with game 5 being back in Anaheim. Tony Massarotti wrote yesterday that in games Lester and Matsuzaka started this year the Red Sox are a combined 45-17, and when Beckett started they were 13 and 14, a losing record. This isn't a dig on Beckett, it highlights the strength of the Sox starting rotation; when Lester and the Dice Man pitch the Sox win!

Moving on the Bullpens, both clubs have dynamite closers in Jonathan Papelbon and Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod saved 62 games this year a new major league record, while Pap saved 41 games. Saves are possibly the most inflated stat in baseball, but it is important to have a guy able to close out the game in October. The days off between games is also beneficial to the closers as both Francona and Scoisia don't have to worry about over using their bullpens.

Watching Papelbon this September he didn't look as dominant; a buddy of mine told me he saw that Pap's opponents batting average against in Septemeber was +.300. However, I had Krod on my fantasy team this year (Championship team by the way) and I can tell you it was a rare night that he worked a perfect 9th. Everyone thinks as the guys as automatic, and for the most part they are, but consider this, the Sox have gotten to Krod in the playoffs before, Papelbon has never given up a run in the postseason.

If starting pitching doesn't decide this series the bullpens leading up the closers might. The Sox seem to have stabilized things between Masterson, Okajima and Delcarmen. Count on Delcarmen working the 6th and 7th innings if necessary, since Masterson moved to the bullpen Manny has a 1.60 era over 33-2/3 innings. Okajima and Masterson will serve as the bridge to Pap in the 9th. Masterson has struggled throwing strikes at times this year, although overall I would say moving him to the bullpen has been a success. Masterson had a great slider and sinker and Okajima has been much better down the stretch run, using his change up more effectively.

The Angels boast one of the better bullpens in baseball, with Scot Sheilds and and Jose Arrendondo anchoring the middle innings. Shields has been a horse for the Angels dating back to their first World Series run in 2002 and Arrendondo is a young kid who doesn't let many people on base, and when he does they don't often score. Arrendondo hasn't walked anyone this year and is sporting a 1.62 era, and he won 10 games out of the pen, not bad.

Overall I'd say the pitching match up is a wash in this series. If Beckett was making 2 starts I might give the edge to the Sox, however things look pretty even to me. So what will it come down to? As simplistic as it sounds and is, whoever pitchers better. If Matsuzaka goes 3 innings in his two starts and the Red Sox bullpen starts sinking like a German sub the Sox could be in some serious trouble. If Lackey and the other Angels starters go out and get rocked by the Sox as they have in the past all the rally monkeys in the world won't be able to stop the Red Sox from moving on to the American League Championship Series.

Check back later today for a breakdown of the lineups!

It's Hard to Shea Goodbye

Right off the bat I'm sorry Mets fans, I couldn't resist. The 2008 Major League Baseball regular season is over...almost.

Where else to start on the final day of the regular season then in New York. The Mets were eliminated from post season contention by the Florida Marlins on the last day of the season for the second straight year. The Mets bullpen did give up the lead, however you can't pin today's loss on them, the line up didn't give the bullpen an opportunity to blow the lead scoring only 2 runs in a 4-2 loss.

With the Mets loss, yes that's right, the Milwaukee Brewers are heading to the playoffs for the first time since 1982 as the Wild Card champs, they lost the World Series in 7 games to the St Louis Cardinals that year. For a little perspective, I wasn't even born yet the last time the Brew Crew played baseball in October, this has to be exciting for Milwaukee.

CC Sabathia, pitching on 3 days rest again, threw 9 incredible innings as the Brew Crew won 3-1. Ryan Braun hit a 2 run home run in the bottom of the 8th putting the Brewers in the playoffs. They had to wait a few minutes to celebrate as the Mets game finished up, however the champagne flowed and the fans cheered. When asked if he'd pitch on 3 days rest again in game 2 Sabathia answered, "No doubt".

The National League playoff picture is set in stone, the NL east champion Phillies will take on the Brewers, and the Cubs will take on the NL west champion Dodgers. In the American League we know the Red Sox will travel to Anaheim to take on the Angels. The Tampa Bay Rays still don't know who their opponent will be as the White Sox remain a half game behind the Twins. The White Sox will play the Detroit Tigers tomorrow, if they win they will play the Twins in a one game playoff on Tuesday to decide the AL Central champion.

ITM will cover all of the playoff series in October, however our main focus will be the Red Sox. Today the Angels announced their playoff rotation and as expected they will throw John Lackey in game 1, Ervin Santana in game 2, and surprise 17 game winner Joe Saunders in game 3. The Sox will throw Beckett in game 1 against Lackey, however it remains to be seen if Lester or Matsuzaka will start in game 2. Terry Francona and Theo Epstien will probably announced their playoff roster tomorrow, ITM will have full coverage.

Notes from Sunday.

Looks like Dustin Pedroia won't win the AL batting title. Dusty finished game 1 of the double header at .326 and is not in the starting line up for game 2 and Joe Mauer is currently at .330, however if Pedroia gets in the game tonight and Mauer and the twins have to play a 1 game with playoff the White Sox...who knows.

JD Drew was 0-2 in game 1 of the Sox/Yanks double header today before coming out, but he did look good in right field and the Sox expect him to play against the Angels in round 1 of the playoffs.

Check back tomorrow and Tuesday for updates about all the division series as well as predictions for the postseason.