Updated Bill James Red Sox 2010 Projections:

Nothing like using a Sunday night to stress over the upcoming Red Sox season (pitchers and catchers in 23 days now). Below are some extracted Bill James predictions for 2010. Recently added player's numbers (Scutaro, Beltre, etc) are based on them being in their prior lineups.


Personally, I think he might be bullish on Ortiz, and hopefully bearish on Lester and Lackey....and no player going over a hundy spot in RBI? That would be concerning, no matter how good the run prevention strategy pans out.



Apologies for the formatting difficulties, it's nearly midnight after a rough weekend...you understand....

Player AVG 2B HR RBI OBP OPS

Ellsbury .302 32 9 62 360 780

Pedroia .307 50 15 75 378 844

Martinez .298 36 18 78 377 841


Youkilis .289 42 23 95 394 886


Drew .269 30 22 76 385 859


Beltre* .269 29 17 68 321 760


Ortiz .264 34 29 99 369 888


Cameron* .237 32 23 74 328 756


Scutaro* .264 30 10 57 347 728



Bench

Hermida* .267 30 20 77 360 797 [projected FT value]


Hall* .234 15 7 27 298 706 [projected 218 abs ]


Varitek .229 13 9 34 332 719 [projected 253 abs ]



Pitching

Player W L ERA IP WHIP K/9

Beckett 15 9 3.62 221.0 1.23 8.39


Lester 13 10 3.84 206.0 1.36 8.04


Lackey* 13 10 3.81 208.0 1.28 7.18


Matsuzaka 12 10 4.02 195.0 1.37 8.49


Buchholz 10 8 3.91 161.0 1.32 8.66


Atchison** 1 1 4.32 25.0 1.40 7.20


Delcarmen 4 3 3.72 58.0 1.40 8.38


Ramirez 5 3 3.82 73.0 1.36 7.77


Okajima 4 2 3.26 58.0 1.21 8.22


Bard 4 2 3.06 53.0 1.23 11.89


Papelbon 5 3 2.38 68.0 1.04 9.93


Wakefield 6 5 4.03 96.0 1.31 5.81 [projected 16 games]



* Projections made based on former team

** Marcel projections

Projected won loss 94-68.


Good enough? Or still not cutting it? In the AL East...it's questionable.

Swing and A Miss; Adam Dunn Whiffs Again.

Tired of waiting for Manny Ramirez to sign a contract the Dodgers contacted Adam Dunn about playing left field for them in 2009. Dunn would add a little bit of pop to a line up in desperate need of a bat if Man-Ram signs elsewhere, however you can pencil in more then a strikeout/game to go along with that.

Dunn has averaged 40 home runs and 190 strike outs in an 8 year career, take the good with the bad I suppose. There's been some discussion about the Sox getting in on the bidding for his services and incorporating him as their 4th outfielder. Personally I hate that idea. Dunn strikes out way to much and sported a .236 average last year, .247 in his career.


Throw out those numbers since the Red Sox subscribe to the Bill James Theory of OBP (on base percentage) and Dunn chimes in with an OBP of .380 (38%). Comparing out corner outfield spots, Drew's OBP was .408 last year, .392 in his career, and Jason Bay gets on 37.5% of the time, rounded up 38%.


Pretty much a wash in terms of OBP and Bay bats 40 points higher and struck out 100 less times last year.


Dunn can't play center so throw Jacoby's numbers out, and if you factor in that Dunn would get at most half the at bats he did last year the Sox would be looking at paying a guy $12 million + for 20 home runs and 100 strikeouts.


In Dunn's case it's not about the money so much that he's not a good fit for the 2009 Red Sox in my opinion. The move makes sense for the Dodgers who are without a left fielder and need some power; just be prepared for this guy to be taking 180+ trips from the on deck circle, to home plate, and back to the pine, STRIKE 3 HE'S OUTTA THERE!