Lineups...Let's Run With This One

We don't often do lineup posts here at ITM but I'm especially excited about tonight's order. Jacoby is back in the leadoff spot, JD settles in at the 6th spot, and when healthy, we might have the best number 7 hitter in the game in Mikey Lowell. As a result of Ortiz's resurgence, the dumping of Lugo and overall general health improvements, tonight's lineup puts the majority of the hitters back into their natural spots.

The Sox have been struggling to maintain a respectable team average, especially with RISP...the lineup below likely gives us the best chance to win night in and night out....let's run with it on a constant basis and see what happens.

Are there still issues with this lineup? Sure, Jacoby still needs to get on base more, and consistent production are certainly desires we all have....but let's hope the change sparks Boston's bats and they show the Rangers what a real contender looks like.

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
4. David Ortiz, DH
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. J.D. Drew, RF
7. Mike Lowell, 3B
8. Jason Varitek, C
9. Jed Lowrie, SS

-- John Smoltz RHP

Go Sox.

Ellsbury and Pedroia

What else does Jacoby Ellsbury need to do to win his job back? And what else does Dustin Pedroia need to do to help him out? A month into the experiment, and the results are a little troubling, even if a little ambivalent.

Hitting in the bottom third of the lineup over the span of June, Ellsbury is hitting .328 (21 for 64), with a .413 OBP and a .500 SLG.

Hitting leadoff, Pedroia has fallen into a well-publicized slump, hitting .207 (18 for 87), with only a .266 OBP. Those are a drastic fall from the April and May numbers.

Add onto that their respective numbers with runners in scoring position. This is, in fact, one of the few areas that Pedey has not seen a big-time drop-off. His season RISP number is still an impressive .357, whereas Ellsbury has been unable, despite his success over the last month, to crank his RISP up over .273. Respectable, but not overwhelming. Even where they flip the good for the bad, the numbers suggest that they're in their placement in the lineup is off.

Even the theory that Ellsbury's speed might be better utilized low in the lineup, where he can feel free to run without destroying situations for the 2-5 big dogs, has failed to pan out. Ellsbury's steal numbers, despite the increased on-base percentage, are exactly even with his numbers out of the lead-off spo, if not a little lower.

In fact, there's really only one stat that seems to offer empirical proof in favor of the move. 17-6. That's the Sox record over the month of June. Talk about playing a trump card.

But as Pedey continues to struggle (though come on, don't you love him even more when you see him making something out of nothing, desperate to get out of this slump, turning an infield hopper into a double, drawing balks, scoring on passed balls?), and Ellsbury continues to climb, it's going to be harder and harder for Francona to brush it off and say why mess with a good thing. It's a long season, and it's all about making the right adjustments at the right time.

Update (4:35 pm):  According to the Fox broadcasting team, Terry Francona told them that he plans on keeping Pedroia and Ellsbury in their current lineup spots for the remainder of the season.  Big surprise.  Not sure if this information was accurately relayed, as the the guys definitely didn't seem to think it much of a story.  Wonder if there'll be any follow up on that in the post-game.

In Praise of Youth

Just wanted to take a quick moment today from all the negative Boston sports stories to write something a bit more optimistic. So here's a bit of praise for the red hot Jacoby Ellsbury. Jacoby is now hitting .344 over his last baker's dozen games, each of which he has hit in.

On the season, he's now holding steady at .300. Only five other centerfielders in all of baseball lie on the other side of that threshold---Carlos Beltran, Adam Jones, Kosoke Fukudome, Torii Hunter, and Marlon Byrd. Not bad company at all for the 25 year old to be keeping. Among all centerfielders, only Beltran has more hits than Jacoby, with a 53 to 48 advantage. And in steals, none of the others is touching him right now.

Really, the only drawbacks so far have been patience and gap power. Of Jacoby's 48 hits, 40 have been singles. And over the season, he has walked only 8 times, putting him in the cellar amongst elite centerfielders and largely explaining his surprisingly low .331 OBP.

Both areas, however, seem natural for a developing 25 year old hitter. All in all, I have to say that it looks like I might be proven wrong. I was one of the Jacoby doubters at the season's beginning. I loved the energy he brought to the position and the basepath, but I thought he had moved too far away from his slap-hitting roots and was in danger of getting lost in the mysteries of the upper-cut. I just didn't see the elite hitting talent developing. But a quick look at the numbers has put me right back on board. The kid really seems to be coming into his own.