Theo Epstein - 2012

"Theo Epstein 2012" with that kind of interview right? 

While I tend to agree that the bullpen will be ok in the long run, lately, it's tough to be a believer.  That said, Theo shows his stuff here, just calming things down and building optimism.  It's a marathon, not a sprint, and it's just Theo being Theo.

ITM Note:  Theo absolutely needs to put this kind of spin and political tone on his discussion of the bullpen, it's primarily his self-constructed baby and looks shaky at best.  Surely it's the most volatile and interchangeable aspect of the team, but it's also something that, coming into this season, Theo painted as a pillar of strength based on his off season moves.

Closing Concerns

The Red Sox ended their road trip with a rarity over the past few seasons, an away series sweep. Doing it convincingly over a division leader is particularly impressive, but in true ITM form, we don't let Red Sox Nation get too excited for too long....

Enter Jonathon Papelpon. Once again yesterday, I was left sweating in the 9th inning. This time at my desk at work, I couldn't help but scream at Gamecast...things got weird. While Pap ultimately got the job done, he has yet to show true signs of the Papelbon of old.

To get into his stats a little, I'll point to a few comparative categories highlighted by the Herald yesterday:

K to BB: 2008: 9.63 2009: 2.55

WHIP: 2008: 98.4 2009: 1.46

Walk per AB: 2008: 34.10 2009: 9.45

SB against: 2008: 2 2009: 7

Pitches per Inn: 2008: 15.2 2009: 19.0

Where has the lights-out closer gone? I no longer walk away from the TV in the 9th to grab a beer in preparation to celebrate another Sox victory. Instead, I'm more concerned with Pap coming in than just about anyone else in our bullpen....when did this happen? I haven't been this worked up about the 9th inning since the infamous closer by committee attempt.

The media continues to point to the fact that he just isn't throwing as many strikes (including first pitch strikes) this season. His velocity is still there, but his mechanics were tweaked over the offseason in an attempt to save his shoulder down the road. Granted it's a tough balance, but perhaps there is a need to reevaluate the changes made. While the mechanical change may be relieving stress on his shoulder throughout the pitching motion, he is not only struggling to throw strikes and hit his spots, he is throwing many more "stressful pitches", known around baseball to cause damage in the long term.

Whatever they did, it's leading to moments of near cardiac arrest for Red Sox Nation, and these tense late game scenarios will only continue to get worse as we work our way through the season. Maybe Red Sox Nation should consider taking beta blockers when shipping up to Boston comes on the loud speaker.

In Need of a Long Outing, What Else is New

"The good thing is, we have had the luxury of having the extra arms to go to.
With the starting pitching, we just need to find a way to get some more length.
I think those things will change through time." - Tek

...yeah thanks Tek......

Justin Masterson takes the mound tonight in his third start since replacing the "kinda injured" Dice-K in the rotation. Once again he'll be called on to go above and beyond realistic expectations since both ends of the rotation are incapable of a quality start of late.

J-Masty will match up against the 0-3 Andy Sonnanstine, and a Rays lineup that absolutely made the Red Sox eat it last night (hence no ITM post talking about it). Not only will he be expected to keep the Sox in the game, but Boston needs him to go deep in the game to preserve the only thing that has kept this team above five hundred this season, the bullpen.

It's amazing how quickly overall sentiment in this town (and my head) can change about the Sox....They are 1-3 this season against the Rays, and 12-17 against them since the start of last season....doesn't it seem like the Rays get up for these games more than the Sox do? Ask me again after tonight's game, and hopefully I have a different answer.

Here is the lineup...go Sox....

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

3. David Ortiz, DH (how much longer will he be here?)

4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B

5. J.D. Drew, RF

6. Jason Bay, LF

7. Mike Lowell, 3B

8. Jason Varitek, C

9. Julio Lugo, SS

-- Justin Masterson, SP

The Flying Dutchman

The story last night was, quite simply, Jonathan Van Every. The former Indians farmhand went 2 for 4, drove in 2, the more important of which was himself, in the 10th, with a game-winning homerun. Must have been a pretty sweet feeling to do it off the team that didn't think they had any room for him with the big club. A few more games like that and Van Every might become a significant cog in the Sox right field (where leg muscles go to die), with Baldelli and JD Drew fighting something-or-others. Another good sign for the Sox---Jacoby Ellsbury contines to heat up, going 3 for 5 last night and improving his average on the season to .289.

The starting pitching was a less optimistic story. Jon Lester, though settling in nicely and mowing down the Indians through the 4th, 5th, and 6th, continues an uneven season, with a pattern starting to emerge: balls left over the plate early (generally a bit high). Sound familiar? Is it possible he's reverting to 2007 Jon Lester? Let's hope I'm just seeing things, and just pray, pray, that we never hear the term "arm fatigue" in the same sentence as "Lester" this season. (Rereading this paragraph, I understand that last night's performance was all right and not nearly cause for such concern, but what can I say? I'm a worrier.)

On the other side, Carmona wasn't much more stable. Though he only gave up two runs, control problems put him in a number of tight situations. But when his sinker is on, he has the makings of a hell of an efficient pitcher. That, and, let's be honest, when Fausto is on the mound and Asdrubal is at second base, that's the highest concentration of 'names I wish my son could get away with' you're going to find on a diamond.

Ultimately, this game came down, once again (how many times already this season?) to the strength of the Sox bullpen. Lester settled in and went six, but the Sox needed scoreless relief from Lopez, Delcarmen, Okajima (with the W), and Papelbon in order to get this game won. You just can't say enough about the job the pen has done so far this season. (Though has anyone else notice much less percussion out there? Is there a correlation between the absence of rhythm and the success on the field?)

So the Sox move on today to Tampa Bay, who's been suffering from an early season hangover after last year's success. Don't be surprised, though, if the Sox visit is just the thing to stir the Rays. With Beckett and Garza tonight, it'll be a telling start to the series.

So enjoy. It should be a hell of a night, with the Sox and the C's both in the crosshairs.

Bard Continues to Dominate

When ITM was down in Ft. Myers in March, one thing was for sure....Daniel Bard impressed the hell out of us. Not only does he pump 100 mph fastballs into the catcher's mitt, but he's able to locate it well enough to make batters constantly swing and miss.

And that's exactly what he has done thus far down in Pawtucket. He isn't just throwing well, he is absolutely dominating hitters, striking out 18 batters in 10 and 2/3 innings....a ridiculous strikeout per inning ratio. Not only has he been blowing gas by nearly everyone, he sports a 1.69 ERA with opponents hitting an Ortiz-like .061 against him (sorry David, it's not exactly deserved, but being on my fantasy team with no taters has got me a little pissed off).

To further confirm his domination, on April 22 at McCoy Stadium, Bard K'd three Rochester Red Wings on nine pitches, which is known in baseball as an immaculate inning...not exactly an everyday occurrence.

Tim Murphy posted about our stacked bullpen and its positive impact yesterday....you can add this to that thought line....Bard is a stud, and he is chomping at the bit to make Tek's glove hand sting and batters miss at Fenway...it's just a matter of time.

Check out a little more on Bard here

Sox Win Streak Credit to Bullpen

During the Red Sox current 11 game winning streak you can point to one reason for their success, pitching, and more specifically the bullpen. During the win steak the Sox bullpen has an era of roughly 1.46, that's really good.

I'm taking nothing away from the lineup who has played very well during the streak, especially Youk, Bay, Pedroia and Lowell, but the real back bone of the team has been and will continue to be the bullpen. The starting pitching has been very good as well, Tim Wakefield started this current run with a near no hitter and he shut out the Indians last night through 7 despite not factoring in the decision.

Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez have 9 appearances each, neither has allowed an earned run. Delcarmen has pitched 12 innings and struck out 9, Ramirez 11 innings with 4 K's. Both have largely served as the bridge to the setup man, meaning that when a starter has left before the 7th inning these guys have the other team on lock down.

Lopez and Okijima have struggled with their command, but Lopez remains a match up option for Francona against lefties, and Okijima's history suggests hill figure it out. A few bad outings is skewing Oki's numbers, he's a guy Francona trusts and will continue to, I'm not too worried yet.

Takashi Saito has been able to fill in for 2 saves on days when Pap hasn't been available to pitch, essentially giving the Sox 2 closers. Papelbon himself has 4 saves, and although he hasn't been un-hittable, he hasn't blown a save.

In comparison to the Red Sox league best bullpen, the Yankees pen is sporting an ERA over 6 and they just got swept out of Boston. I currently have July 4th in the pool for Joe Giradi to be fired, we'll see how that works out for me and the Yankees, who got shut out by Justin Verlander last night.

Of course to win their 12th straight tonight the Sox will need more of the same consistent play, from both their pitching and hitting. That said Julio Lugo returns to the lineup tonight and I'm predicting the streak ends at 11, although I hope not.

Handicapping the Bullpen - or, Is Delcarmen Delusional?

Now that we've finally had some live BP (meaning that this is only wildly premature, as opposed to astonishingly premature), it's time to start speculating how the 2009 bullpen is going to sort out. At least we're not the only ones ready to make bold predictions. As posted earlier, Manny Delcarmen says he wants to set up Pap this year. Possibly we were just getting those quotes live via satellite and there was a, say, 365-day delay on it, and Delcarmen was only saying what everyone in February 2008 expected to hear. Or maybe he knows something we don't. Either way, I've got my hunches.

Obviously Pap is set. But beyond that we've got some fresh faces, some developing stories, and some mainstays.

First there are the lefties. The Sox will likely carry only the two of them in the pen this year, so their places are secure. Lopez is a tough guy to summarize. I can't get rid of this nebulous feeling that he can't be trusted, but then every time I look at his numbers over the last couple years, I'm begrudgingly impressed. Okajima has had his battles, and has likely lost his spot in the 8th inning for good, but showed in stretches that he can still be a major contributor.

Takashi Saito is a smart and gregarious veteran (see earlier discussin of possible sitcom starring Saito, Brad Penny, and either a kid or a trouble-making dog) who's going to fit right in to the bullpen's rhythm section. Although he's coming off some injuries in 2008, since arriving in the States three years ago, Saito has been one of the most reliable bullpen arms in the game. In 180 career appearances (189.2 IP), Saito has 81 saves, a 1.95 ERA, 245 strikeouts. and has walked only 52 batters. Even at 39, even coming off an injury, those are impressive numbers.

The other big offseason addition, Ramon Ramirez, also looks to be battling for the setup role. Ramirez has put up some decent numbers on some difficult teams, and had a solid 2008. He can get some velocity on the ball, he doesn't walk too many, doesn't give up many home runs, and has generally kept his ERA low. Still, despite his track record, Ramirez is still seen as a potential guy, with something to prove.

And there's Delcarmen. He's got all the tools for a setup guy or even a closer, but just can't seem to make the breakthrough. Despite his reputation as a flamethrower, in his big league career he's never averaged more than a strikeout per inning. While he's had flashes of brilliance, he's struggled with control. But, he's worked hard, he's well liked by fans and teammates, and he certainly has potential. This could well be his year.

And Masterson. A set up man? Long relief? A starter. The talent is absolutely there, but where it will be deployed is a big question mark this season, and will likely play a big role in the Sox's fortunes.

So, for the wildly premature speculation: Saito becomes the go-to guy in the 8th inning early on in the season. Delcarmen starts out situational where the Sox need a strikeout, continues not to thrive in that role, and eventually settles into 7th innings when a lefty isn't imperative. Ramirez steadily develops during the season, comes to split time in the 8th with Saito, a mini-controversy erupts, both players are thrown off course, stagger, and Ramirez eventually takes the spot. Masterson goes long relief and is groomed for a starting role, which eventually becomes necessary, since everytime we think we have too many starters, we get massive injury attrition. Tazawa gets the call up and...okay, now we're getting into astonishingly premature territory, so we'll end it there.

Pap in the 9th. Saito in the 8th, overtaken by Ramirez. Delcarmen adrift, developing. Take it to the bank.