Let's Try Not to Hit the Panic Button....Yet

I'm not in panic mode yet, not with the talent and capabilities I know this Red Sox team holds. I am however, a little nervous that the recent run of inconsistent and frustrating play will force the Sox into a panic move come tomorrow at 4pm.

I trust Theo and all, but I continue to feel that this team is of championship caliber as currently constituted. The problem has been the timing of their struggles. The Yankees and Rays went through their problems at the beg ginning of the year while, unfortunately for RSN, the Sox are struggling at the trade deadline. Quality starts from the rotation alongside offensive production has been seemingly impossible to line up.

Clearly this team is better than the level they've produced of late, on all fronts. As with any team, holes and weaknesses remain, but sacrificing the farm for someone other than Halladay may be a stretch. If you look at career numbers, most on the Sox are below their norms, suggesting that, if you believe in the value of historical numbers, an improvement can be expected.

I'll default to that saying of, at the end of the year, the players numbers will be there. I'm just praying this year isn't an anomaly.


Go Sox

(and I bet you thought I'd have a panic-written post this morning.....Nope.......check back this afternoon if they lose though)

Someone Put This Lineup On Their Back

It looks like the Red Sox sure could use a Jim Rice-like bat in their lineup these days......The day after a partial offensive breakout at Fenway Park, the Sox again looked lifeless at the plate, losing to the O's and yet another rookie pitcher 6-2.

The game of baseball is a marathon not a sprint, we hear Tito say that all the time, but Red Sox Nation can't help but be concerned with the prolonged offensive slump. Personally, I'm looking to someone in the middle of the lineup to put this team on their back and carry them until either Theo is able to bring in more firepower, or this offense decides to wake up.

Jason Bay has been all but dead since June 1 (pretty sure he's batting negative .120 since then). David Ortiz has been anything but dependable all season, Youk has been surprisingly inconsistent, JD is making 14 million dollars while batting .235, and Mike Lowell tosses in a few doubles here and there to keep his head above water, but timely production from the middle of this lineup has fallen off the table.

Jacoby is settling back into the lead off spot nicely, Pedroia can only do so much out of the two hole, and we surely can't expect Tek or Lowrie to pull this team out of it. Sure, baseball is a cyclicle game, everyone goes through slumps, but a team-wide slump like this is tough to swallow.

Boston's 3-6 hitters are dropping the ball and this division is simply too good to suffer through rough spots like this for much longer. Perhaps that's why it appears the Sox are looking outside of the organization for an offensive jump start. There appears to be numerous issues for Theo to work through in order to pull off the deal, but the fact that he continues to call the Padres shows limited confidence in the current lineup.

Hot Stove on Halladay

One day removed from Jays' manager J.P. Ricciardi's unexpected reversal on Roy Halladay, and the hot stove is definitely warming up. Ricciardi avowed earlier in the season that his ace righty was not on the market, but that was back when the Jays were the surprise leader in the AL East, before an injury outbreak dropped them down to fourth. Ricciardi, as every baseball fan now knows, said yesterday that the Jays were willing to "listen" to trade talks, though in order to move, he'd need to get a call from a "highly motivated" bidder with a package of young studs. Ricciardi's phone has no doubt been ringing ever since, and reports are starting to leak out about who, precisely, is the most "highly motivated" caller.

Word today is that the Phillies are the early favorite. They've been looking for what seems like months for a powerful righty to put at the top of the rotation next to the southpaw Cole Hammels. The Phillies, like everyone, love Halladay - particularly since they think he fits their ballpark, with a high ground-ball to fly-out ration (1.28 over 2009) and solid strike out numbers (the Phillies have a hitter-friendly home). The Phillies aren't as loaded with young talent as a few of the other teams, but the word is they may be willing to bet the farm on this trade. They feel that he could simply dominate the NL and make them a strong repeat contender.

After that comes the West Coast teams - the Angels, Giants, and Dodgers are all reported to be interested in Halladay. Again, these teams don't have the strongest farm systems, but likely could put together an appealing prospects package, with some decent young pitching going back to the Jays.

Then there are the longshots in our very own AL East. They've got the most talent, but, according to club sources, little inclination to part with it. Both the Yankees and the Sox have let it be known that they're not in active talks for Halladay---here in New York, Yanks officials have spent the day telling anyone who'd listen that there is absolutely no chance they make this trade. But, keep in mind, that's the Yankees talking. Never really the model of caution or consistency. A bad week in the Bronx, and it could certainly be an interesting All-Star break.

That really just leaves the Sox to discuss. The fact is, no one has the young talent - particularly the young arms - that the Sox have. The Jays have said they prefer not to deal within the division, but seem to have acknowledged that a team like the Sox (or possibly the Yankees) have the ability to make an offer they can't refuse.

From this perspective, I'd say it's highly unlikely the Sox or the Yanks get in on this action. Yes, Halladay is a proven AL East winner. Yes, he's under contract through 2010 at a relatively reasonable cost. And yes he'd likely approve a trade to either. But the Jays are reportedly looking for a package of 3 high quality prospects, possibly pushing to 4 depending on what kind of a bidding war they can ignite. You've got to think that's the last thing Cashman or Theo wants after years of work plowing those farms. It would, at the very least, cost them Hughes and Buchholz, respectively.

So we'll just have to wait and see. And I'm just gonna hope against hope that Halladay finds himself a nice comfortable home in the National League.

More Hot Stove

I think we should label this week something along the lines of, "A Penny Saved is a Penny Earned" or "Penny Lane" or "A Penny for your thoughts." There are just too many good options out there, and I can't be bothered deciding on one or making a rational argument as to its significance. I just know Brad Penny is the topic.

So, just a quick update on his value: it's going up.

Penny had his best outing of the season on Thursday night, throwing a gutsy 6 innings (117 pitches) without giving up an earned run to the Yankees. Then there was the Girardi brouhaha, where Penny reminded everyone he was a hard-nosed veteran with a competitive / mean streak (not always the best clubhouse guy, but possibly one you might want in a division dogfight down the stretch).

Then all that got followed up by a slew of injuries and changes of fortune that suddenly have Penny looking like one of the best veteran arms on the market. As John Heyman reported in today's SI, that market severely dried over the weekend, no doubt to the Sox' delight.

First there's Jake Peavey, who the Padres were shopping hard (a deal was a last-minute veto from getting done with CWS, remember), and who is now down for 8-12 weeks with an ankle injury. There's also Erik Bedard, reportedly the Phillies favorite addition, who was scratched from his weekend start due to "stiffness." The caution flags are suddenly raised around him. Heyman reports that Roy Oswalt, who looked like bigtime potential trade bait two weeks ago, is now "all but certain to stay in Houston." Even the last place Indians are finding their division so weak and their ace's stuff so nasty (see no-hit bid this weekend) and reasonably priced, that it would take something huge to pry away Cliff Lee at this point.

All that means that at the end of the week, it might very well be that the Sox are gonna look around the table to see that they're the only ones holding chips and cards. Is it possible that Theo, Clay, Smoltz, Penny, and the fans all somehow come out of this next two week stretch winners?

Check back into ITM.