Dice-K Is Showing ITM UP

Did tonight really happen? I blame grad school for keeping me in and out of the game, but I had to do a double take at the final line for Dice-K:

-8 shutout innings, 4 hits, only 2 walks, and 5 K's?

But wait, doesn't that make it 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings? Doesn't he know that he was overdue for a Dice-K blow up" (I know, I'm jinxing his next start). He extended a scoreless inning streak to 15 straight tonight by continuing his strategy of attacking hitters and not falling victim to the big inning.

I must say, I'm starting to eat my words on the Diceman. Maybe Tom Verducci was indeed right....and between the two of them, they're giving ITM a big "hey, see how much I poured?"

Either way, I'll stop asking questions and take it. His ERA is 4.59, but if you exclude a two of his complete shellings from early in his return, and it's closer to 3. Regardless, his current ERA is still lower than both Lackey's (4.72 ), Wakefield's (6.02) and Beckett's (7.29).

Given Beckett's continued injuries and Lackey's crap show, Dice-K may just end up being the X factor that I completely dismissed from Verducci. See how much he poured?

You Heard it Here First....Unfortunately

(I still can't believe someone was serious when they made this pic)


I went to Remys last night hoping that I would be wrong. As soon as Dice-K nearly threw a no-no last week I called a few people to say he would go 4 and 2/3rds, giving up 5 runs and 5 walks in his next outing.

While I wasn't exactly right, but I was damn near close enough. Dice-K threw the same amount of pitches last night as he did in his 8 innings of dominance over the Phillies (112). This time the output was far from the same. 4 and 2/3rds innings, 8 walks!, 1 k, and 3 runs later, Dice-K was out of the game asking his interpreter how to say over-hyped in English.

That's just who Dice-K is. Impressive at times but amazingly frustrating too....with the frustrating times taking the severe majority. He's far from the phenom from the far east we were sold on....but he's just good enough to keep you wondering if and when he'll turn the corner.

One let down loss to the Royals at home shouldn't derail this team from their current run of great play, but I wonder when Tom Verducci will start to rethink his article on Dice-K's resurgence (ITM note: the velocity seemed to be there last night, but what kind of major league pitcher walks five guys in one inning? T Murph didn't even do that in his little league days.....and if anyone was going to do it, it was him).

Verducci: Dice-K is the Key

I generally like Tom Verducci of SI.com. I think he's a great baseball writer and provides good perspective from the national level. ITM contributor Joe Murph swears by him, has his column set as his homepage, and I'm pretty sure they chat on the phone every other night or so.

Today however, Tom and I are in disagreement. In his most recent piece, he nearly describes Dice-K as an ace reborn and goes on to call him the key to Boston's success. He provides a solid argument to believe in a possible Dice-K turnaround with the return of his velocity and aggressiveness......but expecting an ace and calling him the key to the team's success may be a bit premature. (ITM note, Tom points to that himself at the end of his article)

When you consider the struggles of Beckett and Lackey, you've got to look at a potential rebound in their performances as the real key to Boston's success....plus....have you seen Dice-K pitch over the last three years?

I was his biggest fan when he was searching for the no-no. I want him to succeed and truly earn his 103 million dollar value....but even after Saturday's masterpiece I was screaming at T Murph that Dice-K will go 4 and 2/3rds, giving up 5 runs on 9 hits and 5 walks in his next outing.

He's only started 5 games this year, Saturday's 8 innings of dominance and shutout baseball still leaves him with an ERA of 5.76. Keep in mind he had a great start against Toronto a few weeks back, only to give up 7 runs to the Yankees in his next go-round.

I pray that history doesn't repeat itself with Dice-K's next start (Thursday against the Royals), but unfortunately that's all I know and expect at this point. Until he can show some longer term consistency and convince me otherwise, I'll consider him a nice to have as opposed to a key to Boston's success.

Clay Buchholz on the other hand....now he's doing some convincing.

Lester Leads List of At-Risk Pitchers

Over at Sports Illustrated, Tom Verducci posted today his annual list of at-risk young pitchers, and right there at #1 is tonight's Sox starter, Jon Lester.

For those of you unfamiliar Verducci's "at-risk" list, it's based on a pretty basic theory: pitchers who are 25 and under are highly susceptible to injury the year after they see a workload increase of 30 innings or more. Obviously, many clubs have been operating under the same assumption for years now, keeping young arms on tight innings restrictions.

But Verducci's particular equation on this has been scarily accurate: he went 6 for 7 with injury predictions in 2008 (think Ian Kennedy, Dustin McGowan, and Fausto Carmona). In today's column, Verducci summarizes his track record: "Over the previous three years I red-flagged a total of 24 young pitchers at the start of those seasons. Of those 24 at-risk pitchers, 16 were hurt in that same season. Only one of the 24 pitchers managed to stay healthy and lower his ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez, of Colorado, a guy I said would be less at risk because of his powerful body type."

This year he red flags ten pitchers (listed in order of their workload increase): Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, Dana Eveland, Mike Pelfrey, John Danks, Jair Jurjjens, and Jon Niese.

Verducci does note of Lester that he "has age (he turned 25 in January) and size (6-2, 200) on his side," and expresses greater concerns over slighter, younger guys like Lincecum. He also notes that John Farrell appears to be on top of the situation and does not seem particularly concerned about Lester's injury-risk this year.

Still, Lester's workload increase in 2008 was dramatic - up 83.1 innings over the previous year. The Sox already seem to see Lester as their long-term workhorse, but this could be the year where they find out whether that goal is realistic.

Lester makes his first start of the season tonight against the Rays. There are nerves enough surrounding this start without Verducci's pesky historical analysis, but it's one more plotline to keep in mind. It could be one of the most important of the season.